Risk and Uncertainty. Communication. David Spiegelhalter. Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, CB3 0WB Cambridge,. United Kingdom. The latest Tweets from David Spiegelhalter (@d_spiegel). Statistician Chair, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication. Own opinions. Cambridge . Communicating risk and. t i t th l f uncertainty: the role of metaphor and analogy. David Spiegelhalter winton professor for the public understanding of risk, p p g.
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While getting training in statistics or communication from your university or scientific society can provide you with spisgelhalter to better communicate risk, your best safety net is probably your expertise.
And they are especially vulnerable: Someone is spear-phishing, pretending to be me. The lectures were nicely edited to try and make them more coherent, and can be viewed here. They were convicted, the judge saidnot because they had failed to predict the earthquake, but because they had failed to analyze and explain the risks adequately and had given false reassurances to the townsfolk. Googling ‘Uncertainty’ should find it. Early-career scientists rarely sit on high-profile committees, but they may, nonetheless, uncover important information about threats to security or wellbeing.
In Aprilan earthquake hit the town of L’Aquila in central Italy, rixk people. The seven commission members received a 6-year prison sentence that sparked protests from scientists around the world, concerned that the verdict would push researchers to keep silent about risks in the future.
In the United Kingdom, all women aged 50 to 70 are invited for breast screening every 3 years; the leaflet helps them decide whether to take the test.
Talking to the public about risk
However we try to take a view communiacting the subject that extends beyond the application of probability and statistics, acknowledging that there are deeper uncertainties that cannot be easily put into a formal framework, and that social and psychological issues necessarily play a vital role. So what are the professional responsibilities of scientists when it comes to communicating risk?
Understanding Uncertainty This is an educational resource featuring the use of probability and statistics in everyday life, and makes extensive use of animations to help ‘tell the story’ of the data.
Online tools provide cheap, easy opportunities to offer commentary on risk. World Champion at Loop I am the reigning first and only World Champion in Loop, the version of pool invented by Alex Bellos that is played on an elliptical table with a davie pocket in the baize – more like a putting green than a pool table. Absolute risk expresses the likelihood of something happening as a percentage or ratio, while the relative risk compares risk levels in different groups.
David Spiegelhalter’s Personal Home Page
Scientists with relevant expertise do, however, have communicsting professional responsibility—even a duty—to communicate to the public the best possible evidence about risk, says Andrew Maynarddirector of the University of Michigan Risk Science Center. I work with a small team comprising Mike Pearson web and animationand Owen Smith web.
Spiegelhalter uses his personal blog and Twitter account.
Researchers who raised the eisk about the risks of exposure to asbestos in the s faced backlash from asbestos manufacturers, for example. Hazard B has one chance in 10 of wiping out its neighborhood of 5, people sometime in the next decade. By Francis Aguisanda Nov. National Health Service about breast cancer screeningwhich he helped write and design.
Above all, your research and knowledge spigeelhalter be rock-solid, Spiegelhalter says: When he worked as a lead regulator in the Northeast, his studies of New England and mid-Atlantic fisheries inspired him spiegelhalrer raise an alarm about overexploitation of the resource. Our work focuses on the appropriate use of quantitative methods in dealing with risk and uncertainty in the lives of individuals and society.
Getting embroiled in a legal case could damage a budding career. How to seriously read a scientific paper By Elisabeth Pain Mar. For example, how a risk is spread over time and space will greatly change how people spiegelnalter it, writes Peter Sandman, a Spieeglhalter.
Me in action at the Port Eliot Festival where I won the Loop championship – this was done using a mixture of mathematical insight, a little skill arising from a mis-spent youth, and a huge dose of luck. Scientific Community Breakdowns of the year Scientific Community Runners-up Development Development cell by cell Scientific Community National Academies urges renewed commitment to fusion Oceanography ‘Five Deeps’ mission to explore sppiegelhalter ocean trenches Neuroscience Link to Alzheimer’s seen in nodding syndrome Table of Contents.
I am the reigning first and only World Champion in Loop, the version of pool invented by Alex Bellos that is played on an elliptical table with a single pocket in the baize – more like a putting green than a pool table. Search Jobs Enter keywords, locations or job types to start searching for your new science career.
Science 21 December VolIssue You have to know what you’re talking about. One of the most important aspects of communicating risk is to appreciate the extent and seriousness of the risk and to strike the right balance between informing and alarming.
Scientists sometimes face personal attacks when they speak out about risk, Rosenberg admits, especially if their findings threaten economic interests. Alex describes the principles in detail on the official Loop page. As a successful example of risk communication, Spiegelhalter mentions leaflets published by the U.
The issue divides the medical community, Spiegelhalter says, but the publication has been well received because it spells out risks and benefits clearly and uses real-life figures that the public can easily grasp.
Risk assessment tells us the two have the same expected annual davif At UCS, Rosenberg advocates a somewhat more assertive splegelhalter. He insists, however, that scientists should be careful not to overstep the fine line between helping people make decisions and telling them what to do. While researchers may play their part by communicating their own results, David Spiegelhalterthe Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk in the statistical laboratory at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom, says scientists can also police what others say about risk.
UCS has also published an online guide to help researchers deal with harassment. Measures taken then to curb overfishing helped some of the fish stocks recover, Rosenberg says.
In addition, the concepts of absolute or relative risks must be carefully deployed, depending on the situation, Spiegelhalter says.
Provided their public statements are based on sound research methods and findings, scientists generally have no reason to worry about legal backlash. In L’Aquila, the absolute risk of a violent earthquake was low, but it was higher than usual, and the potential damage was high, so using an absolute figure could appear to minimize the risk.
Grad school depression almost took me to the end of the road—but I found a new start By Francis Aguisanda Nov. This Centre, generously funded by the David and Claudia Harding Foundationis based in the Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics in Cambridge, and is dedicated to improving the way that quantitative evidence is used in society.